Opinion at The Canberra Times by Dr. Warren McKenzie, founder and Managing Director of laser fusion energy company, HB11 Energy
Australia has long been heavily influenced by the UK since our colonial roots, whether it’s our parliamentary and legal systems, our choice of sports, or even our spelling.
But there’s one more way I fervently hope Canberra emulates our UK friends, because it could net us a cool $960 billion by 2050 if we get it right.
I’m referring to last week’s declaration by the UK government to commit an ambitious $5.2 billion towards “leading the global race” for fusion energy.
Not to develop a policy, or shore up its capabilities. To lead the entire world.
And it’s not the only one fighting for this spot.
The US, China, Japan, and Germany are all racing to claim their stake in the largest emerging clean-energy industry that is fusion. As a result we are seeing a growing wave of policies and investments designed to preserve these countries’ relevance in the economy of tomorrow, defined by a new energy mix.
And given Bloomberg estimates of a $60 trillion fusion industry by 2025 – and considering Australia’s 1.6 percent share contribution to global GDP – we are looking at a cool $960 billion opportunity if we decide to join the race too.
This economic injection would also be critical to us as a nation as fossil fuels continue slipping from the energy mix…
A well-meaning, yet incomplete, plan
In the 2023-24 financial year, we took out gold as the world’s largest exporter of metallurgical coal ($38 billion), silver as the world’s second-largest exporter of thermal coal ($37 billion), and bronze as the world’s third-largest exporter of liquefied natural gas ($69 billion).
The $144 billion combined value of these exports was an enormous contributor to our national economy – close to 8 percent of GDP if my calculations are correct.
But, here’s the kicker.
The year prior the combined total was instead $230 billion, or 13 percent of GDP.
This means that, in just one year, the economic contribution of these energy sources alone declined a staggering 60 percent.
And while a large number of factors obviously contribute to energy market values and trade volumes, the writing on the wall here is clear. Fossil fuels are not where the future of the world resides.
So how exactly do our current plans to confront this stack up?
The Albanese government has set an admirable national target of 82 percent of the main national electricity grid running on renewables by 2030. The remaining 18 percent is simply expected to still come from fossil fuels, like gas.
There is a widespread belief that this split will probably be closer to 70 percent renewables, 30 percent gas.
But either way, what do we do about decarbonising the last 18 to 30 percent of the existing grid? What do we do when gas reserves dry up in just 16 short years? What do we do about filling the double digit hole in GDP when our fossil fuel exports dry up?
With great plans underway for a clean energy transition, we need to consider the possibility that they are not complete. But there is another more complete way forward.
A national fusion roadmap for a global race
Exporting high-value equipment to build and run fusion power plants using our existing industries and natural resources is Australia’s best bet. And here’s why.
The UK statement on leading the world on fusion referred to the scientists who “first theorised over 70 years ago that it could be possible”.
What wasn’t mentioned was that some of these were Australian scientists.
It was an Australian called Sir Mark Oliphant who discovered fusion in 1934. And it is another Australian, Professor Heinrich Hora, who continues to pioneer the science of laser fusion today. The legacy these pioneers left is still alive and well in Australia, particularly in our Universities.
Australia can, and should, return to its previous leadership in fusion, and stake its claim to this future industry, with a national roadmap.
With the appropriate regulation, investment and research facilities, Australia could build the world’s first fusion power plant in partnership with its closest allies this decade.
And, fortunately, Australia has most of what it needs for a fusion industry today without major new investments that will distract from other clean-energy ambitions.
We just need to define a roadmap that includes the following:
- Clear regulatory distinction between fusion and nuclear fission, as seen in the US, UK and Japan. Clarifying that fusion is not covered by Australia’s nuclear energy prohibitions would reduce the perception of government risk for private investors and for international collaboration.
- Strategic international partnerships, including programs with long-term partners like the UAE, UK, USA, Japan, and the IAEA. Australia will be warmly welcomed into international programs already underway to develop fusion demonstration plants, coordinate global supply chain development, and create harmonised regulatory frameworks to support safe and rapid deployment.
- Investment in manufacturing capability, particularly leveraging Australia and New Zealand’s $6 billion laser and optics industry sector to support laser fusion development. This would also strengthen sovereign defence and high-tech supply chains in space, healthcare, semiconductors, and critical minerals.
Fusion energy is no longer science fiction. It’s an emerging commercial reality that aligns with Australia’s strengths in lasers and optics, critical minerals, scientific breakthroughs, and international cooperation.
By acting now, Australia can transition from being a passive energy exporter to an architect of the global clean energy future, driving its global deployment, and claiming our rightful share of the economic benefits.
All of this while saving the world with abundant power that is safe, clean, and sustainable over the long term. Now who wouldn’t want to be involved in that?
